Fuling mustard (002507): Q1 net profit growth exceeded expectations revenue entered consolidation phase
Event: The company disclosed the 2019 first quarter report.
The company achieved operating income in the first quarter5.
27 ppm, a 10-year increase3.
81%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies1.
55 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.
15%; basic profit income is 0.
Compared to the ten-year 2018 revenue growth of 25.
92%, the first quarter revenue growth has increased, but the net profit performance exceeded expectations.
Benefit costs have dropped and some products have increased their prices, Q1’s gross profit margin has further increased, so that costs are worry-free.
Q1 gross profit margin 58.
14%, an increase of 6 per year.
The 97 averages are mainly from two aspects, 1) cost reduction contribution.
The company still uses old stock materials in Q1 of 2018, and the price is relatively high. The cost of raw materials that have been in use since Q2 of 2018 has been reduced.
The company’s peak season for raw material procurement in 2019 has passed, and the purchase price continues to decline slightly, which is expected to continue to be beneficial to Q2 and above gross profit margin performance.
2) Contribution to price increase.
The company raised prices on some products in 2018Q4 (announced on November 2, 2018).
We judge that the gross profit margin of mustard has exceeded 60%, and is expected to be between 60% and 62%.
The decline in sales expense ratio contributed to the net high increase.
The Q1 sales expense ratio and management expense ratio were 20 respectively.
11% and 2.
83%, falling by 2 each year.
The sharp increase in gross profit margin and the decline in expense ratio have increased Q1 net profit margin by 6.
The reason is that the price increase and part of sales expenses Q4 accrual.
Channel consolidation and high base impact, Q1 revenue growth has improved, Q2-Q3 is expected to repair.
公司2018年Q2“大水漫灌”之后Q3进行了渠道整固，Q4进一步平衡不同区域经销商价格，但由于2018年预算目标增加，因此Q4销售仍然较多进取，渠道库存有所增加，2019年 年The slower growth rate of Q1 revenue was related to channel consolidation. In addition, the volume and price of Q1 increased in 2018, and the revenue growth rate was 47.
72%造成高基数影响，Q2\Q3 基数影响会减弱。 In 2019, channel sinking and sales management will be strengthened, and offices and sales teams will be fissioned.
In 2019, the company’s six-character channel “innovate, do thorough, go to the county”, and gradually fissioned offices, doubled from the original 34, the sales team fissioned, it is expected to increase sales and management teams.
The crispy pickled mustard adjusted its sales strategy. The crispy turnip performed well, and the extension can still be expected.
In 2018, crispy radish performed well, and the growth of crispy mustard was unsatisfactory. In Q1 of 2019, the independent operation and assessment of crispy mustard will be strengthened, and targeted enhancement will be made. As a leisure product, crispy mouthful still has a promising consumption prospect.
The company’s “press mustard + kimchi + sauce” category expansion strategy will continue. The key tasks in 2019 include “opening up the technical links between the three major categories of mustard, kimchi and sauce”, “Completing the three major category concentration and intelligent production planningDemonstration “, we expect the company will still promote M & A outreach, and look forward to the complete and coordinated development of the three major categories in the future. Investment advice: We expect an expected return from 2019-20201.
00 yuan and 1.
18 yuan, maintain Buy-A investment rating, slightly adjust the 6-month target price to 34.
00 yuan, equivalent to 29 times the price-earnings ratio in 2020.
Risk reminder: short-term cost loss after continuous price increase, 淡水桑拿网 real sales growth increase.