Haitian Flavor Industry (603288) 2018 Annual Report Review: Volume Increase Core Drives Three to Five Steady Progress

Haitian Flavor Industry (603288) 2018 Annual Report Review: Volume Increase Core Drives Three to Five Steady Progress

Company dynamics The company released its 2018 annual report, which achieved 170 revenue in real terms.

3.4 billion, an annual increase of 16.

8%; Attributable net profit is 43.

650,000 yuan, an increase of 23 in ten years.

6%, earnings per share is 1.

62 yuan / share, ROE = 32.

66%.

The company plans to pay 9 for every 10 shares.

8 yuan.

Increasing the number of events, the core driver, soy sauce steadily increased, oyster sauce volume, seasoning sauce is in the adjustment period of the company’s 2018 revenue of 170.

3.4 billion yuan, an increase of 16.

8%, of which Q4 income is 43.

2.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15.

6%.

In terms of categories, soy sauce income was 102.

3.6 billion yuan, an increase of 15.

8%, surpassed the 10 billion mark for the first time, and accounted for 60% of revenue.

1%, a high percentage of soy sauce is steadily increasing, and the overall income is steadily increasing.

The amount increased by 14.

8% reached 187.

In 8 years, the company mainly promoted the boutique strategy and improved the quantity and quality of the network, so the sales of soy sauce maintained a rapid growth. In 2018, there was no increase in the price of soy sauce, and the optimization of the product structure drove the price up.

9%.

Oyster sauce income 28.

5.6 billion yuan, an increase of 26.

0%, income accounted for 16.

8%, the rapidly increasing proportion of oyster sauce continues to increase, contributing to the growth of income.

Driven by the nationalization of oyster sauce and household consumption, the amount of oyster sauce increased by 24.

6% reached 60.

In 43 years, after the adjustment period of 2015-2016, oyster sauce entered a stage of continuous heavy volume; the price rose by 1.

1%, mainly due to quality upgrade and structural optimization.

Seasoning sauce income 20.

9.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.

6%, a significant growth rate, mainly due to the annual adjustment of sales channels, of which sales increased slightly.

0%, the ton price 杭州夜网论坛 decreased slightly by 0.

4% is coming to an end through channel combing, and it is expected that 2019 will usher in restorative growth.

In terms of subregions, the five major regions of the country all maintained growth of more than two figures, and regional development became increasingly balanced.

Initial company cash rebate 205.

1.7 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3%; the advance payment at the end of the period reached 32.

3.7 billion yuan, an increase of 20.

8%, dealers are making good payments to ensure subsequent growth.

Product structure upgrade + technological transformation to improve efficiency, the net profit rate hit a record high, and the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin increased steadily.

8 points to 46.

5%, of which soy sauce, oyster sauce, seasoning sauce gross margin is 50.

6% (+1.

0pct), 40.

9% (+1.

8 points), 47.

8% (+2.

4pct).

Upgrade, upgrade product structure and optimize the gross profit structure. It is expected that the high-end soy sauce will grow by about 20%, accounting for more than 35%, which will drive the overall profit margin of soy sauce; gradually increase, the production capacity is technologically reduced to reduce the cost, so that the cost per ton of soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauceDown 1.

1%, 1.

9%, 4.

7%, of which 1 per ton of direct material decreased.

4%, 2.

2%, 6.

2%, technological transformation to improve production efficiency, while the cost price of sugar and other downward.

Total direct labor costs rose by 26.

4%, accounting for 2.

68%, through the transformation and development of intelligent manufacturing, the increase in labor costs is expected to fall.

On the expense side, the company’s sales expense ratio decreased by 0.

3pct to 13.

At 1%, the gross sales difference further expanded to 33.

3%; management expense ratio 1.

4%, same as last year; R & D expense ratio 2.

9%, a slight increase of 0.

1pct; financial expense ratio from -0.

6% is about -0.

9%, mainly because interest rate income increased by 82%.

6% to 1.

5.3 billion.

The company achieved a maximum attributable net profit of 43.

6.5 billion yuan, an increase of 23.

6%, of which Q4 attributable net profit is 12.

3.4 billion yuan, an increase of 24.

3%.

Increase the maximum net interest rate by 1.

4 points to 25.6%, a new high, and profitability has been further enhanced.

Marching into the new stage of the Third Five Years and continuously deepening the moat 2019 is the beginning of the company’s Third Five Year Plan, with performance indicators of 197 in revenue.

600 million (+ 16%) and a net profit of 52.

3.8 billion (+ 20%), deducting non-net profit 49.

500 million (+ 20%), the company’s transformation reduces its growth expectations as economic growth declines under pressure. One is that the condiment industry has a stable demand. The other is that the company, as an absolute leader, uses brand advantages, capacity advantages, channel advantages, etc. to accelerate preemption.market share.

The company’s current market share of soy sauce is about 17-18%, compared with the 30% market share of Kikkoman in Japan, and there is still room for improvement in the future.

The company ‘s three-five-year plan for soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauce increased by 12%, 15%, and 10%, and continued to strengthen the absolute leading position of the three major categories.Meet the needs of multiple categories and levels.

The company’s existing production capacity exceeds 300 tons, leading the scale of its peers. After the Gaoming base increased capital and expanded the project, the Jiangsu base ‘s capacity release and the second-phase construction of the project were implemented.Increase in volume and increase production capacity protection.

The company’s existing sales network has covered 100% of prefecture-level cities and above, and 90% of inland provinces have sold more than 100 million yuan. In the future, the company will continue to accelerate network layout and sinking, and strengthen refined management of channels.

At the same time, the company’s online business ushered in rapid development, and online sales achieved revenue in 20182.

9.2 billion, an increase of 45.

6%, gross profit margin 52.

95%, effective integration with traditional channels.

Investment recommendations We estimate the company’s attributable net profit for 2019-2021 to be 52.

28/61.

86/72.

43 trillion, corresponding to EPS 1.

94/2.

29/2.

68 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 45/38/32 times (calculated based on the closing price of 2019/3/29).

The company is an absolute leader in condiments. The rapid growth of high-end soy sauce drives the structural upgrade; the oyster sauce continues to increase in volume, and the proportion of high-end oyster sauce will increase in the future to improve the gross profit; the seasoning sauce channel adjustment will gradually come to an end. In 2019, it is expected to recover and grow, and the certainty of overall performance will decrease.

The company entered the new stage of the third and fifth years, and the guidance is expected to remain stable, reflecting the company’s strong ability to cross cycles.

Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.

The risks include food safety risks, raw material price fluctuation risks, less-than-expected adjustments in sauces, and the risk of a decline in the industry’s prosperity.